Results: December 28-31, 2012

Prediction: 2-8"
Actual: 11"
Accuracy: 75% (3 of 4)
I was incorrect, but was also the closest of the reports.

Detailed Report:
Friday: 9"
Saturday: 2"
Sunday: 0"
Monday: 0"

Professionals:
NOAA: 1-3"+ --- WRONG (33%) (1 of 3)
Accuweather: 1.9" --- WRONG (0%) (0 of 3)
Weather Underground: 4"+ --- WRONG (0%) (0 of 3)
Snowforecast.com: 3-6"+ --- WRONG (33%) (1 of 3)

Prediction: December 28 - 31, 2012

Snowing now, but stopping by mid-day tomorrow. Not a powder weekend, but it will be soft out there.

Snow Start: Already started.
Snow End: Friday between 3am and 3pm.
Snow Total: 2-8"

My accuracy so far: 100%

Other estimates:
NOAA: 1-3"+ (Accuracy 50%)

Accuweather: 1.9" (Accuracy 0%)

Weather Underground: 4"+ (Accuracy 0%)

Snowforecast.com: 3-6"+ (Accuracy 50%)

Results: December 21-24, 2012

Prediction: 0-6"
Actual: 0"
Accuracy: 100% (3 of 3)

Detailed Report:
Friday: 0"
Saturday: 0"
Sunday: 0"
Monday: 0"

Professionals:
NOAA: 20% chance of snow --- CORRECT (50%) (1 of 2)
Accuweather: 1-3" --- WRONG (0%) (0 of 2)
Weather Underground: 1" --- WRONG (0%) (0 of 2)
Snowforecast.com: 1-2" --- WRONG (50%) (1 of 2)

Prediction: December 21-24, 2012

Boring.

Snow possibly starting late in the day on Sunday. No new snow for the weekend warriors.

Snow Start: 12pm - 11:59pm Sunday
Snow End: Outside forecast range.
Snow Total: 0-6"

Other estimates:
NOAA:
20% chance of snow on Sunday.

Accuweather: 1-3"
Snow on and off on Sunday. 1-3" Sunday

Weather Underground:
20% chance on Sunday, 1 Sunday night

Snowforecast.com: 1-2"
1-2" on Sunday

Results: December 14-17, 2012

Prediction: 7-13"
Actual: 11"
Accuracy: 100% (2 of 2)

Detailed Report:
Friday: 0"
Saturday: 1"
Sunday: 4"
Monday: 6"

Professionals:
NOAA: 2-6+ --- WRONG (0%)
Accuweather: 3-7+ --- WRONG (0%)
Weather Underground: 6" --- WRONG (0%)
Snowforecast.com: 7-13" --- CORRECT (100%)

Prediction: December 14 - 17, 2012

This one is hard to predict. There are a few different storms converging and it looks like it is mostly going to mostly miss Vail to the south. Look for large accumulations around Crested Butte.

Starting Friday in the wee hours of the morning, Vail will receive 6-12" by Monday morning. Snow stopping around mid-day on Sunday, again only briefly. Snow is forecast to continue on-and-off next week with a possible larger storm showing up on Tuesday.

Snow Start: 12am - 12pm Friday
Snow End: 3am - 3pm Sunday
Snow Total: 7-13"

Other estimates:
NOAA: 2-6+
2-6" on Friday, 30% chance of showers on Saturday, 20% chance of snow on Sunday.

Accuweather: 3-7+
3-7" Friday, Trace Saturday, 0 Sunday

Weather Underground: 6"
2 Friday, 2 Friday night, 30% chance of Showers Saturday, 1 Sunday, 1 Sunday night

Snowforecast.com: 7-13"
2-4 Friday, 2-4 Saturday, 3-5 Sunday

Results: December 6-9, 2012

Prediction: 8-14"
Actual: 12"
Accuracy: 100% (1 of 1)

Look for this week's predictions coming on Thursday. Included will be forecasts from NOAA and Weather Underground so that my predictions can be compared against the pros.

Detailed Report:
Friday: 1"
Saturday 1"
Sunday: 9"
Monday: 1"

Prediction: December 6-9, 2012

Starting today in the afternoon, Vail will receive 8-14" by Sunday morning. Snow stopping around mid-day on Sunday, but only briefly. Snow is forecast to continue on-and-off through Wednesday.

Snow Start: 9am - 9pm Thursday
Snow End: 4am - 4pm Sunday
Snow Total: 8-14"

Starting out

A few years ago I would publish weekend snow forecasts for Vail mountain to my friends in the Denver area via email. I got a pretty decent reputation for being accurate. Starting that up again, it is now in blog format.

Some information about my predictions... This is my untrained estimation by reading as much as I can find each week published by the weather communities at wunderground.com, noaa.gov, weather.com, etc...

Disclaimer:
I have no meteorological background other than interest. These are not the "official" snow totals that are published by the weather community, but rather what is reported by Vail from their weather station at Mid-Vail (about 10500' and wind sheltered). Vail is partial as they need to attract tourists. Note that there is no better way to record because the "official" weather stations are lower in the valley. The best "station" I know of is this one, but it seems to have frequent outages. I simply rely on the published daily reports from the mountain. Your depth may vary.

Rules:
- rough 12 hour window of snow starting
- rough 12 hour window of snow stopping
- 6 inch range of snowfall as reported by Vail on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday and Monday mornings.